Ndemanga ya msika zitsulo mu August, monga 31 masiku, ngakhale mtengo zitsulo ali rebound yaing'ono pa nthawi, koma nthawi zambiri mu ntchito zinthu za kuchepa mantha, zitsulo gulu mtengo index anagwa 89 mfundo, ulusi ndi waya anagwa. 97 ndi 88 mfundo, sing'anga ndi wandiweyani mbale, otentha adagulung'undisa mitengo inagwa 103, 132, ozizira adagulung'undisa mitengo lathyathyathya.62% yamtengo wachitsulo idakwera madola 6 aku US, index ya coke composite idakweranso mfundo 6, mitengo yachitsulo yachitsulo idatsika ndi mfundo 48, kuyambira pamtengo wapakati, mitengo yachitsulo yophatikizika, yozungulira yotentha komanso yozizira idabweranso 1, 32 ndi 113, ulusi, waya ndi mbale zidagwa 47, 44 ndi 17 mfundo.Zinthu zomalizidwazo zinali zofooka kuposa momwe amayembekezera, ndipo mafuta osaphika anali amphamvu kuposa momwe amayembekezera.Komabe, mu lipoti la mwezi watha, zidatchulidwanso momveka bwino kuti kukhazikitsidwa kwa ndondomeko yoletsa kupanga ndiye maziko a kubwezeretsanso, ndipo ndikofunikira kuti mabizinesi asachepetse kupanga.Tikuyembekezera msika wazitsulo mu September, zitsulo zazitsulo zakhala zikuyang'anira kupanga, mitengo yachitsulo ndi yosavuta kukwera komanso yovuta kugwa, ndipo mafuta osaphika ndi osavuta kugwa komanso ovuta kuwuka.
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Mu msika zitsulo mu August, n'zosamveka kunena kuti mosasamala kanthu za ndondomeko kulamulira kupanga, mu nkhani ya chikhalidwe off-nyengo amafuna kuchepa, mphero zitsulo m'malo kusankha kusunga milingo kupanga, komanso anakana kuchepetsa kupanga, chifukwa. mu zitsulo mphero phindu linagwa kuchokera 64,94% mpaka 51.08%, mphero zitsulo tinganene kuti anatola Sesame anataya chivwende, ena mwina ngakhale kutola Sesame.
Ngakhale kukonza zitsulo zopangira zitsulo kumachepetsa kupanikizika kwachuma m'deralo mpaka kufika pamlingo wina, kwawononga zofuna za makampani ndi mabizinesi, ndipo pamapeto pake zawononga zofuna za dziko (kuchokera ku kukankhira kopanda nzeru kwa mtengo wachitsulo).
Tikuyembekezera msika zitsulo mu September, mitengo zitsulo akadali ndi siteji mavuto, makamaka:
Yoyamba ndi kukakamiza kopereka, kuchokera ku data ya mgwirizano wazitsulo, pafupifupi tsiku lililonse linanena bungwe lachitsulo chosungunuka pakati ndi kumapeto kwa August chinali matani 2.456 miliyoni, ndi kutuluka kwa chitsulo chosungunuka mu sabata yomaliza ya mweziwo. sizinachepetse, zomwe zili pamtunda wapamwamba, zomwe zimapangitsa kuti pakhale kupanikizika pamsika pakati pa September.
Chachiwiri ndi kukakamizidwa kwa kufunikira, kuchuluka kwa tsiku ndi tsiku kwa zinthu zomangira mu Ogasiti ndi pafupifupi matani 145,000, likulu la zomangamanga, malo ogulitsa nyumba ndi zomangamanga zatsopano zikadali ndi vuto pakufuna kutulutsidwa mu Seputembala, ngakhale kufunikira kwanyengo kudzakhala ndi kumasulidwa kwina, koma mayendedwe onse akadali osakwanira, kupanikizika kulipobe.Pankhani ya zogulitsa kunja, kusiyana kwa mtengo pakati pa kunyumba ndi kunja kwacheperachepera, ndipo zofuna zakunja zatsika, zomwe zidzachititsanso kuti katundu wachitsulo apite patsogolo.
Kuonjezera apo, mafuta oyambirira adzatsegula gawo lovomerezeka la kuchepa kwa September, ndipo mtengo wachitsulo ukhoza kupanga siteji inayake.
Mu September, ngakhale mtengo wachitsulo utagwa, malowa ndi ochepa, choyamba, mphero zamakono zamakono ndi theka la phindu lamakampani, ndipo ngakhale pali phindu, ndilopanda kanthu, chitsulo chinagwa 50 mpaka 100 yuan / tani, opindulitsa zitsulo mphero, akhoza kubwerera pafupifupi 30%, pa nthawi imeneyo, palibe chifukwa kuchepetsa kupanga, mphero zitsulo nawonso mwachangu kuchepetsa kupanga, kupanga kotunga ndi amafuna rebalancing, ndi mtengo anakonza.
Kuyang'ana msika wazitsulo mu Seputembala, zinthu zazikulu zomwe zimapangitsa kuti mitengo yachitsulo ikhale yosavuta:
Choyamba, malingaliro a macro adakonzedwa.Yang'anani mlozera waukulu wa Guosen Securities mu sabata la Ogasiti 25, lomwe lawonjezekanso kwa milungu iwiri yotsatizana, kuwonetsa kuti kukwera kwachuma kwakula, makamaka pambuyo pakukhazikika kwa nyengo, ndikupitilira kukwera, komwe kuli bwino kuposa mbiri yakale. , ndikuwonetsa kuti kuyambiranso kwachuma ndikwabwino.Pa Ogasiti 29, gawo lachisanu la Komiti Yoyimilira ya 14th National People's Congress idawunikiranso Lipoti la State Council on Implementation of Budget kuyambira kuchiyambi kwa chaka chino pa 28, ndikuwonetsetsa kuti chimodzi mwazinthu zisanu zofunika kwambiri ntchito zandalama mu sitepe yotsatira ndikuteteza ndi kuthetsa ziwopsezo zangongole zamaboma.Boma lapakati limathandizira maboma am'deralo kuthana ndi ngozi zobisika zangongole, limalimbikitsa maboma am'deralo kuti agwirizanitse mitundu yonse yandalama, katundu, chuma ndi ndondomeko ndi njira zosiyanasiyana zothandizira, kuyang'ana kwambiri mizinda ndi zigawo kuti ziwonjezeke ntchito yawo, kuthetsa bwino ngongole zobisika zomwe zilipo, konzani mawuwo, kuchepetsa chiwongola dzanja, ndikuchepetsa pang'onopang'ono ziwopsezo zangongole.Kuonjezera apo, ndondomeko yozindikira nyumba ndi kusazindikira ngongole yatsegulidwa, ndipo pangakhale kusuntha kwakukulu m'tsogolomu, zomwe zimachepetsanso kupanikizika.
Chachiwiri, chitsulo ndi chowonjezera pang'ono muzinthu izi, pali malo okonzekera.Kuwona mndandanda wazinthu zamtundu wa Mandarin, womwe udachokera ku 165.72 kumapeto kwa Meyi mpaka 189.14 pa Ogasiti 30, kubwereranso kwa 14.1%, mgwirizano wa ulusi 10 udachokera ku 3388 kumapeto kwa Meyi mpaka 3717 pa 30, kuyambiranso kwa 9.7%, zinthu zochepa zinawonekeranso kuti zikuchulukitsa msika.Ngati mungoyang'ana pazofunikira zanu, zikhazikitso za ulusi sizili zoipa, ndipo pali ndondomeko ya mafakitale (kuthekera kwa kupanga, kutulutsa kawiri kawiri), payenera kukhala malo okonzekera.
Chachitatu, kufunikira kwachitsulo kukuyembekezeka kutengera nyengo mu Seputembala.Kuchokera kuwunika kwa data yachitsulo, August kupanga zitsulo zosapangana sizingagwere koma kuwonjezeka, akuti pafupifupi tsiku lililonse kupanga kapena pafupifupi matani 2.95 miliyoni, ndi zitsanzo za ziwerengero za mgwirizano wazitsulo zidzawonjezeka ndi matani 330,000, zomwe zikusonyeza kuti zitsulo zopanda pake. kugwiritsidwa ntchito mu August mu July kunawonjezeka ndi pafupifupi 10,5% kumbuyo, n'zotheka kusunga pafupifupi 10% chaka ndi chaka kukula, ndipo kufunika sikunagwe.Mu Seputembala, kutentha kumatsika, kumangidwanso pambuyo pa kusefukira kwamadzi, kuthamangira kwa projekiti, ndi zina zambiri, kufunikira kukuyembekezeka kuwonjezeka nthawi yomweyo ndi mwezi pamwezi.
Malinga ndi kafukufuku wazaka 100 womanga, kufunikira kwapansi pamakampani omanga: kuchuluka kwa simenti kwa mabizinesi 250 kunali matani 5.629 miliyoni, omwe anali + 5.05% (mtengo wam'mbuyomu + 1.93) ndi -28,3% (mtengo wam'mbuyo -31.2).Kuchokera kumadera akumadera, South China yokhayo inakhudzidwa ndi mvula yowonjezera, yomwe inkatsika mwezi ndi mwezi, pamene North China, Southwest, Northwest, Central China, East China ndi Northeast China zonse zinawonjezeka.Kufuna ntchito zazikulu zomangamanga: simenti mwachindunji kupereka matani 2.17 miliyoni, + 4.3% sequentially (mtengo wapitawo + 1.5), chaka ndi chaka -4,8% (mtengo wapita -5.5).Kumbali ina, zochitika zina za m'madera zatsala pang'ono kuchitika, ndipo ntchito za zomangamanga zili ndi nthawi yowonekera;Kumbali ina, chiŵerengero cha mapulojekiti omwe angoyamba kumene chawonjezeka, ndipo kufunikira kwa zipangizo zomangira za ntchito zina zomwe anamaliza kwabwereranso.Kufunika komanga nyumba: Kuchuluka kwa zoyendera za konkire za malo osakaniza a 506 kunali mamita 2.201 miliyoni, + 2.5% sabata pa sabata (mtengo wam'mbuyo + 1.9), ndi -21.5% pachaka (mtengo wam'mbuyo -30.5).Kuchokera kudera lachigawo, chifukwa cha kuwonongeka ndi kumangidwanso kwa malo ena osakaniza ku North China, kuchuluka kwa magalimoto kumachepetsedwa, ndipo kuchuluka kwa magalimoto ku South China kumachepetsedwa pambuyo pa kuwonjezeka kwa mvula, pamene chapakati China, Kumwera chakumadzulo, Kumpoto chakum'mawa, Kumpoto chakumadzulo ndi East China akuwonjezeka.Ndondomeko zabwino za nthawi yayitali, kugula kwapansi kumawonjezeka kwa masabata atatu.Kuyambira pa Ogasiti 21 mpaka Ogasiti 27, malo onse anyumba zamalonda zatsopano m'mizinda yayikulu 8 anali 1,942,300 masikweya mita, kuchuluka kwa 4.7% sabata iliyonse.Panthawi yomweyi, malo onse ogwiritsira ntchito nyumba zachiwiri (mapangano) m'mizinda yayikulu eyiti anali 1.319,800 square metres, kuwonjezeka kwa 6.4% pa sabata pa sabata.
Kuchokera pazomwe zatsirizidwa zamabizinesi amakampani omwe adatulutsidwa ndi National Bureau of Statistics, zidapitilira kutsika, kutsika mpaka 1.6% mu Julayi poyerekeza ndi nthawi yomweyi chaka chatha, ndipo zida zidatsika ndi 0.2% poyerekeza ndi nthawi yomweyi chaka chatha. zonsezi zili m’malo otsika kwambiri m’mbiri.Deta yamakampani ang'onoang'ono akuwonetsa kuti zida zonyamula zida zapamwamba kwambiri, makina amagetsi amagetsi, komanso kuwerengera kochepa kwamakompyuta, zida zonse ndi mafakitale ena zidawoneka ngati zizindikiro zakuwonjezeredwa, zomwe zikuwonetsa kuti kufunikira kwa zida zomangira kwatsika nthawi yomweyo. , kukula kwa kupanga zitsulo zofuna zapanga kwathunthu kusiyana.Izi zikuyembekezeka kupitilira, mwina mu Seputembala, padzakhala kutulutsidwa kwina kwa kufunikira kwapakatikati.Malinga ndi zitsanzo za kafukufuku wa zitsulo za Union Union, mu Seputembala, kugwiritsidwa ntchito kwatsiku ndi tsiku kwa zinthu zopangira zitsulo, magalimoto ndi mafakitale ena azitsulo kunakwera ndi 3.23%, 8.57% ndi 8.89% motsatana, ndipo mafakitale amakina ndi zida zapanyumba adagwa. ndi 4.07% ndi 7.35% motsatira.
Chachinayi, kupereka kwazitsulo kumayenera kugwa mu September.Kumbali imodzi, mabizinesi ena amakakamizika kuchepetsa kutayika kwa kupanga ndi kukonzanso, mabizinesi ena ayamba kugwiritsa ntchito mfundo zoletsa kupanga, ndipo kuwongolera zachilengedwe kwakhala kovutirapo, zomwe zidzadzetsenso kukakamizidwa kutulutsidwa kwa mabizinesi ena.Pa Ogasiti 15, Unduna wa Zachilengedwe ndi Zachilengedwe, Unduna wa Zachitetezo cha Anthu ndi Supreme People's Procuratorate adayang'anira limodzi milandu 11 ya kuwunika kwachidziwitso chabodza cha kuipitsidwa kwa chilengedwe ndi zigawo zazikulu zotulutsa zonyansa.Milandu 11 iyi idasamutsidwa ndi dipatimenti yoyang'anira zachilengedwe kupita ku mabungwe achitetezo a anthu kuti akafufuze limodzi ndikuwongolera, kuphatikiza mabizinesi ambiri m'zigawo zisanu ndi zinayi, magawo ochotsa zowononga komanso magawo ena ogwirira ntchito ndi kukonza.Malinga ndi kafukufuku wa zitsanzo, ochepa mabizinesi zitsanzo mu September kupanga ulusi mu August kapena pafupifupi 5% kuchepa.
Chifukwa cha kuchedwa kukhazikitsa ndondomeko kulamulira kupanga ndi mphero zitsulo pazifukwa zosiyanasiyana, pamaziko a chaka ndi chaka linanena bungwe la matani miliyoni 17,28 mu January mpaka July, osachepera 7.5 miliyoni mu August, ndiko kuti, zitsulo zosakongola chinawonjezeka. pafupifupi matani 24.78 miliyoni mu Januwale mpaka Ogasiti.Izi zikutanthauza kuti m'masiku 122 kuyambira Seputembala mpaka Disembala, pafupifupi tsiku liyenera kutulutsa matani osakwana 203,000, ndipo pafupifupi tsiku lililonse kuyambira Seputembala mpaka Disembala chaka chatha ndi matani 2.654 miliyoni, zomwe zikutanthauza kuti pafupifupi tsiku lililonse kupanga zitsulo zosapanga dzimbiri kuchokera. September mpaka December chaka chino sangathe upambana 2.451 miliyoni matani, amene akadali malinga ndi zotsatira za ulamuliro lathyathyathya kuwerengera.Izi zikutanthauza kuti mlingo watsiku ndi tsiku wa zitsulo zopanda pake m'chaka udzachepetsedwa ndi matani pafupifupi 500,000 pakalipano.
Choncho, kuchokera pamwamba, mtengo wamtengo wapatali wachitsulo sizovuta.
Kuchokera pamalingaliro amafuta aiwisi, ngakhale kumayambiriro kwa chaka, ndinanenanso kuti msika walowa mugawo latsopano lachiwopsezo cha malonda, nkhawa, zopanda malire komanso zosamvetsetseka, kukwera kwaposachedwa kosalekeza kwamitengo yachitsulo, ngakhale tikudziwa zina zosapeŵeka. zinthu (kutchinga malo achidule, kutsika kwa mtengo wakusinthana kwa RMB, kupanga chitsulo chothamanga kwambiri, kutsika kwa miyala yamtengo wapatali, ndi zina zotero), komabe kugulitsa phokoso lambiri: Kumbali imodzi, pafupifupi tsiku lililonse chitsulo chosungunuka cha mabizinesi 247 chinali chokwanira. anagulitsa, koma ananyalanyaza mfundo yakuti pafupifupi tsiku lililonse nkhumba chitsulo kupanga Bureau of Statistics mu July (2.503 miliyoni matani) anagwa ndi 63,000 matani poyerekeza ndi June (2.566 miliyoni matani).Kumbali inayi, kugulitsa kwathunthu chitsulo chochepa kwambiri chachitsulo, koma kunyalanyaza miyezi yoyamba ya 7 ya nkhumba ya nkhumba inangowonjezeka ndi matani 17.9 miliyoni, pamene chitsulo chimalowetsa matani oposa 43.21 miliyoni ndi miyala yapakhomo yawonjezeka ndi matani 34.59 miliyoni (tiyeni yekha kunena kuti dziko chitsulo kufufuza si kwenikweni pansi lalikulu kufufuza kwambiri, zitsulo mphero kufufuza anagwa ndi matani miliyoni 9,65);Kuonjezera apo, idagulitsa bwino phindu la mphepo yamkuntho ya migodi yotumizidwa kunja, koma inanyalanyaza phindu laling'ono lopitirirabe komanso kutayika kwa mabizinesi opanga zitsulo;Kuphatikiza apo, kugulitsa kwathunthu zenizeni ndi ziyembekezo za mphero zachitsulo kwakanthawi osachepetsa kupanga kapena kuwongolera kupanga m'tsogolomu, koma kunyalanyaza kuzama ndi kukhulupirika kwa mfundo ziwiri zowongolera.Tsopano kupsyinjika kwakukulu pazitsulo ndi kukoka mopanda nzeru kwa mafuta aiwisi, ndi chiyambi cha ndondomeko yofika nthawi mu September, kuchokera pamalingaliro a kulemekeza msika, awiriwa adzabweretsa kubwerera kwawo koyenera, mtengo wamafuta osaphika. ndi nkhani ya nthawi ndi rhythm, kukula kwake, nthawi yayitali, ikukwera kwambiri, ndipamenenso pali danga lalikulu la kuchepa kwamtsogolo.
Dongosolo la International Steel Association likuwonetsa kuti kuyambira Januware mpaka Julayi, chitsulo cha nkhumba padziko lonse lapansi cha matani 774 miliyoni, kuwonjezeka kwa matani 17 miliyoni panthawi yomweyi chaka chatha cha matani 757 miliyoni, malinga ndi 1 tani ya chitsulo cha nkhumba cha 1.6 matani a chitsulo kuyeza, kuposa nthawi yomweyo chaka chatha kudya chitsulo pafupifupi matani 27 miliyoni.Pakati pawo, China inapanga matani 532 miliyoni a nkhumba ya nkhumba, kuwonjezeka kwa matani 24 miliyoni kuchokera ku matani 508 miliyoni panthawi yomweyi chaka chatha, ndipo inadya matani 38 miliyoni achitsulo.Kupanga chitsulo chosungunuka m’maiko ena kumatsika ndi matani 7 miliyoni chaka ndi chaka, ndipo kumwa kwachitsulo kunatsika ndi matani 11.2 miliyoni.Zitha kuwoneka kuchokera ku deta ya WSA kuti nkhumba za nkhumba za ku China zinawonjezeka ndi 4.7% chaka ndi chaka, ndipo kuwonjezeka kwake kunali 140% ya kuwonjezeka kwapadziko lonse, ndiko kuti, kuwonjezeka kwa chitsulo padziko lonse lapansi kunachokera ku China. .Komabe, malinga ndi ziwerengero zoyenera, kupanga chitsulo padziko lonse lapansi kudakwera ndi matani 63 miliyoni kuyambira Januware mpaka Julayi, ndi matani opitilira 25 miliyoni.Kuchokera pazowona za satellite, kuchulukirachulukira kwa chitsulo padziko lonse lapansi kumasonkhanitsidwa makamaka m'madoko akunja ndi mayendedwe oyendetsa nyanja.Gulu loyang'anira zitsulo zachitsulo la Steel Union likuti pafupifupi matani 15 miliyoni azitsulo zawonjezedwa kunja kwa nyanja.
Chitsulo chosapanga dzimbiri coil chubu
Zitha kuwoneka kuti chitsanzo ndi nambala yachitsanzo ndizosiyana, zolemba sizili zofanana, ndipo ziganizo zingakhale zosiyana.Mfundo imodzi ndi yakuti ntchito ya zitsanzo zochepa mu nthawi zina sizingakhale zogwirizana ndi deta ya zitsanzo zonse, kaya ndi njira ya kusintha, makamaka ponena za matalikidwe a kusintha, omwe nthawi zambiri amatha kupanga phokoso. kugulitsa, ndipo izi nthawi zambiri zimakhala ulendo.Popanda kufika kumapeto.
Mwachidule, msika wazitsulo mu September, ponena za kukhazikitsidwa kwina kwa ndondomeko zosiyanasiyana ndi kukhazikitsidwa kwa zoyesayesa, mitengo yachitsulo ikuyembekezeka kubweretsa kubwezeretsa kwenikweni pambuyo pobwereza mobwerezabwereza kumapeto kwa August.Apanso, ndi bwino kuti mphero zitsulo ayenera mwachangu kukhazikitsa ulamuliro kuchepetsa kupanga, kuchepetsa kupanga oyambirira ndi kupindula oyambirira, amalonda ndi ma terminals kupitiriza mwakhama zokhoma zinthu zina zotsika mtengo, mokangalika ntchito tsogolo kapena njira chida arbitrage, kukumana otsika. kuwerengera kwa zida zambiri zoyamba, ndiyeno kukumana ndi mtengo wapamwamba wamafuta oyambira, kapena kubweretsa nthawi yabwinoko.
Nthawi yotumiza: Sep-02-2023