Ngati mitengo yazitsulo ikuyembekezeka kupitilirabe kukwera mu 2023, kupanga kufunikira kwazitsulo kuyenera kukhala kokulirapo kuposa kumapeto kwa 2022. Vladimir Zapletin/iStock/Getty Images Plus
Malinga ndi ambiri omwe adafunsidwa pa kafukufuku wathu waposachedwa wa Steel Market Update (SMU), mitengo ya mbale yatsika kapena yatsala pang'ono kutsika.Tikuwonanso anthu ochulukirachulukira akulosera kukwera kwamitengo m'miyezi ikubwerayi.
Pamlingo wofunikira, izi ndi chifukwa chakuti tikuwona kuwonjezeka pang'ono kwa nthawi yotsogolera - avareji ya masabata a 0,5 posachedwapa.Mwachitsanzo, avereji ya nthawi yotsogolera ya koyilo yotentha yotentha (HRC) inali yocheperapo milungu inayi ndipo tsopano ndi masabata 4.4 (onani Chithunzi 1).
Nthawi zotsogola zitha kukhala chizindikiro chofunikira kwambiri pakusintha kwamitengo.Nthawi yotsogolera ya masabata a 4.4 sizikutanthauza kuti mtengo wapamwamba ndi wopambana-wopambana, koma ngati tiyamba kuwona nthawi zotsogolera za HRC pafupifupi masabata asanu mpaka asanu ndi limodzi, mwayi wokwera mtengo ukuwonjezeka kwambiri.
Kuonjezera apo, mphero zimakhala zosavuta kukambirana zamitengo yotsika kusiyana ndi masabata apitawo.Kumbukirani kuti kwa miyezi ingapo, pafupifupi opanga onse anali okonzeka kuchotsera kuti atolere maoda.
Nthawi zotsogola zawonjezeka ndipo mphero zocheperako zikufuna kutseka malonda pambuyo poti mphero zaku US ndi Canada zalengeza kukwera kwamitengo ya $60 tonne ($3 a hundredweight) pa sabata pambuyo pa Thanksgiving.Pa mkuyu.Chithunzi 2 chimapereka mwachidule zoyembekeza zamtengo wapatali zisanachitike komanso pambuyo polengeza za kuwonjezeka kwa mtengo.(Zindikirani: Makina opangira magetsi ali okonzeka kukambirana zamitengo yotsika pomwe opanga magulu otsogola a Nucor adalengeza za kudulidwa kwa $140 pa tani iliyonse.)
Zoneneratu zidagawika zigayo zisanalengeze kukwera kwamitengo.Pafupifupi 60% amakhulupirira kuti mitengo idzakhalabe pamlingo womwewo.Izi sizachilendo.Chodabwitsa n'chakuti, pafupifupi 20% amakhulupirira kuti adutsa $ 700 / tonne, ndipo ena 20% amayembekezera kuti atsikira ku $ 500 / tonne.Izi zidandidabwitsa panthawiyo, popeza $ 500 / tonne idatsala pang'ono kusweka ngakhale chomera chophatikizika, makamaka mukatengera kuchotsera kwa mtengo wamalo a mgwirizano.
Kuyambira nthawi imeneyo, gulu la $ 700 / tani (30%) lakula, ndipo pafupifupi 12% yokha ya omwe anafunsidwa akuyembekeza kuti mitengo ikhale $ 500 / tani kapena kutsika m'miyezi iwiri.Ndizosangalatsanso kuti mitengo ina yolosera imakhala yokwera kwambiri kuposa mtengo wankhanza wa $ 700 / t wolengezedwa ndi mphero zina.Chotsatirachi chikuwoneka ngati akuyembekezera kuwonjezereka kwina kwa mtengo, ndipo amakhulupirira kuti kuwonjezeka kumeneku kudzakula kwambiri.
Tidawonanso kusintha pang'ono kwamitengo m'malo operekera chithandizo, zomwe zikuwonetsa kukhudzika kwamitengo yokwera pamafakitale (onani Chithunzi 3).Panthawi imodzimodziyo, chiwerengero cha malo ogwira ntchito chinawonjezeka (11%), kuwonjezeka kwa mtengo wa malipoti.Kuphatikiza apo, ochepa (46%) adzadula mitengo.
Tidawona momwemonso mu Ogasiti ndi Seputembala pambuyo pa kukwera kwamitengo ya fakitale.Pamapeto pake, analephera.Chowonadi ndi chakuti sabata silipanga chizolowezi.Pamasabata angapo akubwerawa, ndikhala ndikuyang'anitsitsa kuti ndiwone ngati malo ogwira ntchito akupitiriza kusonyeza chidwi pakukwera kwamitengo.
Kumbukiraninso kuti malingaliro amatha kukhala oyendetsa mtengo wofunikira pakanthawi kochepa.Tawona kuwonjezeka kwakukulu kwa positivity posachedwapa.Onani mkuyu.4.
Atafunsidwa ngati anali ndi chiyembekezo pa theka loyamba la 2023, 73% anali ndi chiyembekezo.Popeza kuti kotala yoyamba nthawi zambiri imakhala yotanganidwa, sizachilendo kuwona chiyembekezo m'chaka chatsopano.Makampani akuwonjezera masheya awo nyengo yomanga masika isanafike.Pambuyo pa tchuthi, ntchito zamagalimoto zidawonjezekanso.Komanso, simuyeneranso kudandaula za misonkho yamtengo wapatali kumapeto kwa chaka.
Komabe, sindimayembekezera kuti anthu azikhulupirira kwambiri nkhani zankhondo ku Europe, chiwongola dzanja chokwera komanso kuchepa kwachuma.Ndifotokoze bwanji?Kodi ndi chiyembekezo chokhudza kugwiritsa ntchito ndalama za zomangamanga, zomwe zili mu Inflation Reduction Act zomwe zimalimbikitsa kumanga minda yamphepo ndi dzuwa, kapena china chake?Ndikufuna kudziwa zomwe mukuganiza.
Chomwe chimandidetsa nkhawa pang'ono ndikuti sitikuwona kusintha kwakukulu pakufunidwa konse (onani Chithunzi 5).Ambiri (66%) adanena kuti zinthu zili bwino.Anthu ambiri adanena kuti akutsika (22%) kuposa momwe amakwerera (12%).Ngati mitengo ikupitiriza kukwera, makampani azitsulo ayenera kuwona kusintha kwa kufunikira.
Ndi chiyembekezo chonse cha 2023, chinthu china chomwe chimandipangitsa kudabwa ndi momwe malo ogwirira ntchito ndi opanga amagwirira ntchito zawo.Ndikuganiza kuti tsopano nditha kunena kuti 2021 ndi chaka chobwezeretsanso, 2022 ndi chaka chotsitsa, ndipo 2023 ndi chaka chobwezeretsanso.Zingakhalebe choncho.Koma si za manambala.Ambiri omwe adafunsidwa pa kafukufuku wathu akupitiliza kunena kuti ali ndi katundu, ndipo ambiri akupitilizabe kuchepa.Ndi ochepa okha omwe adanena kuti akumanga katundu.
Chuma champhamvu chopanga zinthu mu 2023 chimadalira ngati tikuwona nthawi yobwezeretsanso.Ndikadayenera kusankha chinthu chimodzi kuti ndiyang'ane pamilungu ingapo yotsatira kupatula mitengo, nthawi zotsogola, zokambirana zamafakitale, ndi malingaliro amsika, zitha kukhala masheya ogula.
Musaiwale kulembetsa ku Tampa Steel Conference February 5-7.Dziwani zambiri ndikulembetsa apa: www.tampasteelconference.com/registration.
Tidzakhala ndi oyang'anira akuluakulu ochokera m'mafakitale ku US, Canada ndi Mexico, komanso akatswiri otsogola pazamphamvu, ndondomeko zamalonda ndi geopolitics.Ino ndi nyengo yochuluka kwambiri kwa alendo ku Florida, choncho lingalirani zosungitsa malo posachedwa.Panalibe zipinda za hotelo zokwanira.
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Nthawi yotumiza: Feb-15-2023